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Get the latest news and tips about mortgage finance and the property market. Scott Miller, mortgage broker from Advanced Mortgage Solutions comments on housing and lending.

Where is the OCR and Business lending heading?

Published by Scott Miller on Friday, September 24, 2010 in

 


   Dr Bollards announcement of the official cash rate (OCR) on 16th September came as no surprise. It had been well mooted coming up to the announcement that the OCR would remain unchanged at 3%. What did come as more of a surprise was the tone of his message around where he saw the OCR’s movements in the near future. Some could argue that he had made a complete U-turn on earlier comments he had made. It was only at the July (29th) OCR announcement that it was indicated for the foreseeable future the OCR would rise .25% every 3 out of 4 announcements until the OCR reached a level of around 5.75% - 6.25% where it would stop for a period of time before slowly dropping away again. Now it appears the OCR will not rise again this year (with two announcements left this year: 28th October & 9 December), and will only slowly rise throughout next year stopping at a high point of around 4.5% - 4.75% in the middle of 2012. The reasons given for this change in forecasting was mainly put down to two things 1) A slower than expected improvement in the world’s economy. 2) A slower underlying improvement of the New Zealand export lead recovery.

 

Business finance has been on the improve for almost a year now. By the end of 2009 we started to see the taps slowly turned on after 18 months of them being firmly shut off. The momentum started with increases in overdrafts and acceptances of top-ups, and then gained further ground with residential purchases off full financials, and has now come almost full circle with finance being found to purchase of existing businesses or to start capital up new ventures. Levels of ‘easy’ money are some way off the crazy days of 2007 and early 2008, but in the same breath are far removed from the dark days of late 2008 and 2009. Now if a deal stacks up it has a good chance of being approved whereas 18 months ago it could have been the deal of the century and declined before it was even looked at.


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