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Mortgage Advice Blog

Get the latest news and tips about mortgage finance and the property market. Scott Miller, mortgage broker from Advanced Mortgage Solutions comments on housing and lending.

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - June's Property Gazette

Published by Scott Miller on Saturday, June 15, 2013 in

As the winter months bite there appears to be no slowdown in property sales around New Zealand. Average days to sell is still below 30 and house prices continue to increase due to lack of supply.

It has been widely reported that the Reserve Bank has been looking into ways of slowing this process down. About a month ago they announced they are placing pressure on the lenders in New Zealand around the ease of approving high loan to value ratio loans.

This pressure is now taking effect with lenders approving fewer 95% percent loans. 95% loans applications that would have sailed through 3 - 4 weeks ago are now being declined, simply because lenders are being pickier on what they approve.

I was asked to comment on these changes in an article by Tracy Wither of Bloomberg New Zealand. Please click here to view the article.

As you will read below, it has never been a better time to fix your mortgage. Please contact me NOW to see what I can secure for you.

                                            Current Interest Rates as at 14 June 2013  
                               Variable                      5.74%  
                               6 Month Fixed             4.99%
                               1 Year Fixed                4.94%
                               2 Year Fixed                4.99%
                               3 Year Fixed                5.65%
                               5 Year Fixed                5.65%

Interest Rate Outlook

We are currently stuck in that awkward place, caught between the rock of a rising housing market and the hard place of an overvalued exchange rate. The Reserve Bank is painfully aware that the lowest mortgage rates in half a century are adding fuel to the housing market but it is loathed to raise the official cash rate given the risk the exchange rate could keep rising and push inflation further below their 1-3% target range.

The number of houses sold over recent months has been on the rise and this has coincided with growing momentum in mortgage lending to the household sector. Add the recent lift in permanent and long-term migration to the mix, and tensions within the housing market are becoming more and more evident.

While the above will keep talk alive around the prospect of the official cash rate moving up, we actually see the Reserve Bank utilising “macro-prudential tools” as their first line of attack to calm overly exuberant pockets of the market. What does that mean? Essentially, they may limit or put restrictions on the bank as to how many high LVR loans they can write or restrict the areas they can be written in. As an example they “could” stipulate that borrowers must put 10% minimum equity into property in the Auckland area as opposed to 5% elsewhere, as it is in the “big smoke” where most of the concerns lies.

In terms of interest rates and the best strategy in the current market, there are not many bad options. We don’t see a lot of value in the variable or 5 year fixed rates but with 1 & 2 year rates currently sitting at or under 5% and mid-range fixed rates of 3 years at 5.50% these offer good value. Perhaps a mix of some of these is the best solution mixing the cheapest money with some mid-term certainty and still enjoying a blended low rate of low 5%. As always though, please sit down with us and talk through your situation as everyone’s circumstances are different.

What’s Hot

Do you want, a new 42 inch LED TV or a new Mini iPad, take your pick, the banks are throwing “gimmick” incentives at clients to try and win their business. Please be aware in most instances you can actually substitute these gifts with cold hard cash and remember, “beware the banker bearing gifts”.     

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - Property Gazette May

Published by Scott Miller on Tuesday, May 07, 2013 in

Finally we are seeing more properties coming on the market for sale. This is great news for purchases, so much so that 11 preapproved clients of Advanced Mortgage Solutions found properties to purchase in just two days. Busy yes........happy clients, very much so!

On a personal note I completed the Graperide in 3hrs and 10mins despite me chain falling off with 30kms to go. The challenge for next year is to break the 3hr mark!

As you will read below, it has never been a better time to fix your mortgage. Please contact me NOW to see what I can secure for you.


So on with what’s happened this month.         
                   

                     Current Interest Rates as at 1 May 2013  


                                 Variable              5.55%  
                                 6 Month Fixed     4.99%
                                 1 Year Fixed        4.95%
                                 2 Year Fixed        4.99%
                                 3 Year Fixed        5.65%
                                 5 Year Fixed        5.99%

 
Interest Rate Outlook

The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) continues to be caught between a rock and a hard place in regarding what to do with interest rates.

The high exchange rate is pushing inflation ever lower but in Canterbury, the rebuild and rising house prices are showing potential to push domestic inflation up.  For the time being it looks like RBNZ will sit on the fence and deal with the housing issue later.
 
The RBNZ can’t increase the official cash rate (OCR) early for fear of exacerbating the high currency and pushing inflation even further below target. Equally, it can’t reduce the OCR or keep it unchanged forever, for fear of stoking the overvalued housing market and creating runaway inflation.
 
Eventually, one or the other will win out, forcing the RBNZ to climb down from its current position on the fence. We firmly believe that the rebuild and housing-induced domestic inflation will eventually prove the stronger, forcing the OCR to move upward.

Over the course of New Zealand’s history, construction booms have generated inflation pressures and rising house prices have provoked consumer spending. We believe that these themes will be repeated in the upcoming cycle – the RBNZ will have to act swiftly to keep a lid on the effect this could have.
 
As for the best mortgage interest rate strategy in this environment the value looks to sit in the 1 to 2 year part of the curve with 2 year rates a click under the magical 5% rate. We can’t see any value in floating when it is 0.25% to 0.50% higher than the 2 year rate. Everyone’s circumstances are different so please do talk to us before finalising any decision.   

 
What’s Hot

The hot part of the interest rate curve is the 2 year fixed price. Traditionally the marketing strategy that banks use to gain market share, it is again proving successful with rates under 5% currently representing great value.
 
Deal of the Month


This month we were able to help reduced the lender’s mortgage insurance cost from $3,200.00 to $1,600.00 for a young couple purchasing their first home. As well as the reduction we were able to add the cost of this insurance to the home loans total, enabling them to pay it off over a 30 year period. Contact us….we deliver.

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - Property Gazette - April

Published by Scott Miller on Thursday, April 04, 2013 in

 

 

The fantastic summer weather we have been enjoying appears to be continuing into autumn. House prices continue to increase and time to sell a property continues to decrease. As far as I can tell there is no slowing in this process and it seems to be set to continue for some time yet.

On a personal note I am competing in the 101km, 2013 edition of the Graperide up in Blenheim this weekend with a couple of friends. Something I am looking forward to, let's hope the weather stays fine.

As you will read below, it has never been a better time to fix your mortgage. Please contact me NOW to see what I can secure for you.

So on with what’s happened this month.               
                   

           Current Interest  Rates as at 2 April 2013 

                     Variable                     5.55%  

                     6 Month Fixed            5.10%

                     1 Year Fixed              4.95%

                     2 Year Fixed              5.30%

                     3 Year Fixed              5.49%

                     5 Year Fixed              5.65%

Interest Rate Outlook

A rift is brewing in the mind of Reserve Bank Governor, Graeme Wheeler. On one hand, he is keen to see the overall economic growth we are enjoying continue; on the other, he is rightly concerned by the highest level of house price inflation since 2007. Because of this, he is investigating rarely-seen alternatives to lifting interest rates, to try and stem spiralling house prices (particularly in Auckland and Christchurch).

He doesn't have many options, but two being considered are: increasing the size of the deposit needed to buy a house from 5% to 10, 15 or even 20%; or forcing New Zealand banks to hold a higher level of funds on deposit for every dollar they lend out.

A move to increase the required deposit for a house purchase would surely slow the property market down, but could be political suicide, as you’d expect a nasty backlash from consumers, especially first home buyers. The easier option may be to force banks to hold a greater level of capital in reserve, which would push interest rates up: lenders would be forced to attract more people to saving through term deposits, for example, and this could increase the amount of money available to lend, as all lenders would be doing the same. Additionally, it wouldn’t impact interest rates in other areas of the economy or the exchange rate. This may be a less risky political move for the Reserve Bank to make, although it would come under a lot of pressure from the big banks to not do so. It may come down to a case of who the government is less scared of: the voting public or the big banks.

Interest rates remain at record lows, with fluctuation occurring as different banks offer different “specials” in an attempt to grab some market share. The current “hot” one-year rates available (we regularly see these under 5% once discounted) have a lot of appeal, but consideration should also be given to the lowest ever long-term rates on offer, with three- to five-year rates sitting in the mid- to high-5% range. These provide excellent stability at affordable rates, and will look very attractive in two years’ time.  
         
What’s Hot

Get a free check on what you are paying for house, contents and car insurance. We now have access to leading New Zealand insurer, Tower Insurance, and can provide an obligation-free quote on your client’s general insurance needs, potentially saving them hundreds. Refer your clients now!
 
Deal of the Month

We recently came across some investors who were happily set up with their bank, quite oblivious to the fact that their investment debt was on a principal and interest payment structure while they still had personal debt. Their investment debt should have been interest-only, in order to maximise the tax benefits, and so we restructured it and have saved them thousands in tax. Call us - we deliver!

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - Property Gazette - March

Published by Scott Miller on Thursday, March 07, 2013 in

 

Purchasing property over the February/March period has continued to increase as have the amount of properties for sale, however more properties on the market would help matters. The largest amount of feedback I am receiving from clients is there just isn't enough property to go around.

For those looking to purchase in Christchurch or Auckland this seems only to be set to get worse - My advice, keep looking - something will come along!

As you will read below, it has never been a better time to fix your mortgage. Please contact me NOW to see what I can secure for you.


So on with what’s happened this month.

                
      Current Interest Rates as at 7 March 2013


Variable             5.55%
6 Month Fixed    5.10%
1 Year Fixed      4.89%
2 Year Fixed      5.35%
3 Year Fixed      5.39%
5 Year Fixed      5.75%


The old saying “It starts in Auckland and then spreads down the country” looks to be ringing true with recent housing market data seeing a broadening strength of house sales across the regions in New Zealand. Mortgage approval numbers continue to rise adding further fuel to the building momentum in the property market.
 
The only concern to this is the increased level of commentary from the Reserve Bank who seem to want to hold interest rates low to stimulate growth across the country while not wanting to see the property market become too heated, which you could argue has already occurred in the “big smoke”.
 
They only have a couple of levers they can pull. One being interest rates and of course the other being to bring in restrictions around the loan to value ratio they allow banks to lend on homes. The latter could be politically be a very dangerous move, particularly if as suggested it is aimed at the region of Auckland.
 
Economic growth does appear to be finally kicking in with many economists predicting consistent growth of between 2.50% to 3% over the next 2 years. This growth may be enough to keep the Reserve Bank at bay in relation to keeping interest rates unchained for the foreseeable future. However, we suggest now is a good time for you to have your eyes and ears open as changes could be afoot in the not too distant future. We lean toward the Reserve Bank falling back on its more traditional control mechanism so watching interest rates over the course of 2013 could be advantageous.
 
Which brings us to our current borrowing strategy, with competition among the banks heating up in the 2 & 3 year fixed brackets there are some striking deals there at present, we have seen 2 year rates at 4.99% and 3 year at 5.39%, how can that be a bad price? Personally this writer favours them. As always though give us a call, as everyone’s circumstances are different.

What's Hot

Well it’s not hot but you need to know about it. ANZ have lead the charge and nothing surer their competitors will be right on their heels, with the Bank now controlling the valuation process, as such you or the client will no longer be able to choose the valuer you want to value a security property. It is designed to protect the bank and consumers but will slow the process.  

Deal of the Month

Last month we helped a client into another investment property when he had been told NO by his existing bank. He had only been self-employed for 7 months but with well put together interim financials and some good supporting information we were able to get him not only approved by an interest rate of 4.99% fixed for 2 years, he was a very happy man - Call us we deliver!

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - February's Property Gazette

Published by Scott Miller on Wednesday, February 06, 2013 in
        
                  Current Interest Rates as at 5 February 2013

Variable                 5.55%
6 Month Fixed        5.10%
1 Year Fixed          4.95%
2 Year Fixed          5.35%
3 Year Fixed          5.65%
4 Year Fixed          5.99%
5 Year Fixed          5.99%

Interest Rate Outlook

The summer heat has been wonderful, not only for holidays but to help keep the fire lit under the property market. We have seen house sale numbers and building consents at their highest since 2008. Despite taking a bit of a breather over December and January we have still seen both house sales and prices increase year on year from 2011 to 2012 at circa 8% & 6% respectively. By the way 2013 has started this does not look like easing up any time soon.

Building consents are really starting to make an impact as the Christchurch rebuild has well & truly kicked in. The Auckland Super City Council are trying to free up more land to address the housing shortage, although word from developers in the region note the bureaucracy within the Super City council is enough to dampen the desires of even the most passionate developer!

Despite the strength of our housing market our overall economic growth in 2013 will still be heavily dependent on international markets such as Europe & the US. The problem here is these countries continue to grapple with the fallout of the GFC (Global Financial Crisis of the last 4 years) leaving us particularly dependent on Asia’s demand for our primary produce. Essentially 2013 is shaping up as more of the same as 2012, best defined as “grumpy growth”, although, growth, nonetheless.

What about interest rates?


There continues to be speculation that interest rates will rise (purely because they have never been this low), however our outlook has them stable for the majority of 2013 (well at least at this stage). Having said that there still appears to be more value in the 1 or 2 year fixed rates than the variable interest rate. As such fixing for 1 or 2 years appears to offer the most value currently, although for those of you with sizable debt there is a lot of common sense in splitting your debt across 2 or 3 fixed periods to diversify your interest rate risk.

What's Hot

The “sweet spot” for banks in terms of interest rates seems to currently be around the 2 year fixed rate. For clients with Loan to Value ratios of less than 80% we are currently seeing rates as low as 4.99% for 2 years being offered.

Deal of the Month


Christmas clearly saw some generous family conversations take place as in January we had 2 lots of clients whereby Mum & Dad provided guarantees for first home buyers, the good news is that now days these guarantees are only limited to 15% of the value no of the loan not 100% - Call us we deliver!

Mortgage Brokers Christchurch - December's Property Gazette

Published by Scott Miller on Monday, December 03, 2012 in


Current Interest Rates as at 01 December 2012  

 Variable                     5.55%  
6 Month Fixed            4.95%
1 Year Fixed              4.95%
2 Year Fixed              5.15%
3 Year Fixed              5.60%
5 Year Fixed              5.99%

Interest Rate Outlook

Variable interest rates are at a record 48 year low while shorter term fixed rates such as 1 year are at an all-time low being the lowest they have ever been since fixed rates were introduced.
 
While house sales and building permit consents are at a 5 year high and the number of days for houses to sell at a record low of 31 days in some markets (namely Auckland and Christchurch).
 
On top of this the last 2 months have seen positive long term permanent immigration reversing the trend of the previous 12 months.
 
These positive trends are being supported by new government initiatives recently announced whereby government will be working closely with local councils to increase the amount of available land for residential use. Government has also committed to increased funding for roads, water & waste facilities to such development opportunities. This coupled with resource management reform will speed up the time it takes to obtain consents as well as provide more certainty for developers to act will certainly help increase the available stock and therefore affordability.
 
In terms of the most advisable interest rate option currently, there really aren’t any bad choices, although we seriously question the value of variable rates at present with all fixed rates out to 3 years the same or lower than the variable rate. Short term money of 6 or 12 months is as low as 4.95% which could be great for those trying to free up some extra cash for Christmas, although if possible the far smarter option is to take the opportunity of lower interest rates to make higher than required mortgage payments greatly reducing the term of your loan and thus the amount of interest you are charged – everyone’s circumstance are different so clients are best to talk to us.

What's Hot

The Christmas rush is on as many clients look to get themselves into a new property prior to Christmas. We’ve had a fantastic year in business and it is in no small way thanks to you & your support. Thanks again for your referrals they are greatly appreciated & not taken for granted.

Deal of the Month

We now have access to a genuine “Lo Doc” lender, whereby self-employed clients who are unable to provide up to date financials can still obtain a mortgage at competitive market rates, last month we helped 2 clients in this situation - Call us we deliver!

Christchurch Mortgage Brokers - November's Property Gazette

Published by Scott Miller on Tuesday, November 06, 2012 in

 

Current Interest Rates as at 05 November 2012

Variable               5.60%  
6 Month Fixed      4.95%
1 Year Fixed        4.95%
2 Year Fixed        5.15%
3 Year Fixed        5.60%
4 Year Fixed        5.99%
5 Year Fixed        5.99%
 

Interest Rate Outlook

The growth we enjoyed in the first half of 2012 has slowed somewhat with most economists predicting a slower second half to the year. The positive spin off to this is that inflation is being held low which should result in a stable interest rate outlook for the next 12 months.
 
While it is stable we certainly do not expect any easing of rates although we did notice that across the ditch they felt compelled to drop their rates slightly. The predicated down-turn in Australian looks like it is finally landing.
The slow-down of the Australian economy, together with the unstable environment in Europe should see us return to positive migration numbers in 2013 which will help push the New Zealand economy in the right direction.
 
Additionally, the rural sector looks to be in for another strong year with many international growing markets facing difficult conditions which will see demand for our produce and dairy provide healthy returns to farmers which will flow through the entire NZ economy.
The housing market continues to suffer from contrasting forces, on-going low interest rates and a lack of quality stock sees prices continue to rise and days to sell shorten, however a genuine lack of stock in the hot Auckland and Christchurch markets is really holding the market back.
 
With the recent merge of NBNZ into the ANZ competition for your mortgage amongst the banks continues to heat up. There are all sorts of weird and wonderful deals being thrown at consumers from Galaxy tablets to cold hard cash and we are seeing interest rates at sub 5% levels for the right clients.
 
We still see the sweet spot in the interest rate cycle as the 2 year point, although for the more conservative clients they seem happy to pay mid 5% and lock it in for a bit longer. Our advice is to talk to us as everyone’s circumstances are different and you really need to make your decision based on your own situation.
 

What’s Hot

When a bank loses a client they call it “churn”, when they gain one from another bank they call it “refinance”, the gloves are off and we are seeing some amazing price deals both interest rate wise and in contribution to costs, call us with your client’s needs we are securing great deals!
 

Deal of the Month

In some instances registered valuations are required, in others they are not, this can actually be the difference between being able to do a deal and not, last month we saved a house purchase for all by financing it with no valuation - Call us we deliver!

Christchurch Mortgage Broker - Property Gazette October

Published by Scott Miller on Tuesday, October 02, 2012 in
                                  
Current Interest Rates as at 02 October 2012  

  Variable            5.60%  
6 Month Fixed   4.99%
1 Year Fixed     4.95%
2 Year Fixed     5.20%
3 Year Fixed     5.60%
5 Year Fixed     5.99%
 

Interest Rate Outlook

The term sailing into a head wind would presently typify New Zealand’s economy at the moment. While we have some strong internal momentum it is being constrained by variables largely outside of our control.
 
The housing market continues to perform strongly; prices are progressing upwards with Auckland leading the charge which is a great sign. The average number of days to sell a house last month was at a 4 year low at 36 days. This is primarily driven by a lack of stock in the market which is also pushing house prices up.
 
Trending against our domestic growth are international pressures with our nearest and largest trading partner. Australia is facing some challenges in their powerhouse sector of mining which is facing its first downturn in more than a decade as China (their major consumer of minerals) are slowing their consumption. Interestingly a positive spin off of this is the reversal of people leaving New Zealand to find jobs in Australia which slowed last month and saw NZ enjoy neutral immigration figures. If this trend continues we will see a return to positive migration which can only help our economy further.
 
Last month saw a further small easing in interest rates in the mid-term area of the rate cycle with 2 year fixed rates now being the lowest option in the market. As such we see the current 2 year fixed rate as offering very good value, it is around 0.40% under the carded current variable rate and strong deals are being priced at low 5%. Many people are enjoying a positive spin off of this as they are finding a little extra cash in their hands. The smart move of course is to keep your monthly payments the same which in turn reduces their term, saving you thousands of dollars in interest payments.

If in doubt as to the right move please call us to have a chat as the “right” decisions for each client is specific to your own set of circumstances.
 

What’s Hot

The worst kept secret in the banking sector is finally out with ANZ announcing that the NBNZ brand is to cease as they roll the two brands into one across the country – a positive spin off is they are being very generous in pricing to help keep clients. R.I.P the black horse – a kiwi icon!
 

Deal of the Month

Last month we helped a couple onto a house after they had relocated from one region to another, they were only now setting up their new business but thanks to some well-prepared cash flow figures and good security position we were able to help them out - Call us we deliver!

Christchurch Mortgage Broker - Property Gazette September

Published by Scott Miller on Thursday, September 06, 2012 in
  

Current Interest Rates as at 03 September 2012

Variable              5.60%  
6 Month Fixed     4.99%
1 Year Fixed        5.15%
2 Year Fixed        5.30%
3 Year Fixed        5.60%
5 Year Fixed        5.99%
 

Interest Rate Outlook

House sale volume was up 20% year on year for July 2012. Dwelling consents were up 5.70% for July. Mortgage lending was up for July with its strongest month of settlements since October 2009 and we even had net migration on the positive side of the ledger for the first time in a long time.

So is it up, up & away… well, yes, but very slowly and that is not a bad thing. There are many positives in the market currently, none more so than the continued sales activity in the Real Estate market, which is like a racehorse under a tight hold, being constrained by the lack of stock on the market. This of course is pushing many sales to auction, (causing stress for all), driving the number of days to sell down and of course prices up.
This issue is exacerbated by many households continuing to focus on reducing debt while interest rates are at a record low instead of upgrading their house. We still see the market moving conservatively as many consumers feel nervous about the risky state of the European and American economies, so would rather just ‘stay put’ and see how things pan out.

Interest rates remain very stable at record lows with some minor reduction in the 6 month and 2 year parts of the curve seeing all rates in this area lower than actual variable rates. We cannot see value in having any more than a small amount of your debt on the variable rate given it is higher than all rates out to 2 years and shows little sign of reducing any further, of course personal circumstances such as expected length of time holding the asset need to be taken into consideration.

Have a chat to us, we are negotiating some fantastic discounts presently and are happy to share our view on the best structure for you.

What’s Hot

With a lack of stock on the market Auctions are hot, please remember that clients who are pre-approved may require a registered valuation as a condition of approval, if so, they would need to have that valuation complete prior to auction to be able to bid – if you are looking at purchasing at an auction and are unsure about where you stand - ask us.

Deal of the Month

We had an American chap who did not yet have citizenship, he had been limited to a 70% LVR at other banks however we helped him obtain 90% from a mainstream bank and he was happily able to purchase the house he was chasing - Call us we deliver!

Chistchurch Mortgage Broker - Property Gazette August

Published by Scott Miller on Thursday, August 02, 2012 in

 
Current Interest Rates as at 02 August 2012  
Variable              5.60%  
6 Month Fixed     4.99%
1 Year Fixed        5.15%
2 Year Fixed        5.35%
3 Year Fixed        5.60%
4 year Fixed        5.79%
5 Year Fixed        5.99%
 

Interest Rate Outlook

Despite record low mortgage interest rates, sales volumes remain constrained by relatively low levels of stock on the property market. With buyers competing for a limited quantity of available properties, the days to sell have fallen close to a three year low, with prices continuing to trend higher.

Sales volumes in all regions of New Zealand (bar one) are above the levels seen for the same period last year with Auckland and Canterbury remain the hotspots of growth. Strong mortgage approvals suggest momentum in the market will continue. The recovery in residential building activity from historical low levels is also showing similar regional demand in Auckland and Canterbury. Migration numbers remain volatile, but a turnaround in net inflows will support domestic spending and the housing market.

The residential market is delicately poised with low numbers of properties for sale and rising prices demonstrating competing tensions within the housing market. Support continues to come from record low interest rates and aggressive competition across all of New Zealand’s mainstream lenders who are literally buying business at present. However growth continues to be slightly constrained by affordability and consumers desire to reduce their debt while rates are low.

There have been small changes to fixed mortgage rates for terms of 2 years and less over the past month. These changes have "smoothed out" the mortgage yield curve which now has the 2 year rate as its low point. By contrast there have been no changes to the floating rate or fixed rates for terms of 3 years or longer.

In our view the RBNZ is unlikely to cut the OCR for the balance of 2012. However with 6 month to 2 year fixed rates all lower than the floating rate, borrowers have the ability to "lock in" interest rate cuts by fixing. We therefore believe it makes sense to fix for 2 years – 3 years, not in an attempt to "hide" from the possibility that the RBNZ might raise rates, but simply to save money.


What’s Hot

Specials – depending on the balance of the portfolio of a bank they often run a “special” to try and attract money for a specific term. As an example we have one bank offering 4 year fixed @ 5.79% and a completely different bank offering 5.99% for 5 years fixed – Please call me for more details.

Deal of the Month

We had a client stuck between the purchase of their new dream home and the sale of their pre-loved dwelling, with interest rates at a record low we were able to structure a bridging loan for them that was no more expensive than what they were paying out monthly - Call us we deliver!

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